Update OBR economic forecasts to March 2026 EFO#1512
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Update CPI, RPI, average earnings, house prices, per capita GDP, and social rent forecasts from the March 2026 Economic and Fiscal Outlook (Table A.1). Remaining variables (CPIH, mortgage interest, rent, non-labour income, mixed income, council tax by country) retain November 2025 values pending publication of the OBR detailed forecast tables spreadsheets. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Variables still using November 2025 forecast values (CPIH, mortgage interest, rent, non-labour income, council tax by country, etc.) should reference the November 2025 EFO, not March 2026. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Adjust expected values in 5 tests affected by CPI/RPI forecast changes: extended childcare entitlement, student loan interest rate, student loan repayment threshold, and two child limit payment. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
These variables' values were not updated in the March 2026 OBR EFO, so their reference hrefs should point to the November 2025 source: - non_labour_income - council_tax.england - council_tax.scotland - council_tax.wales - per_capita.mixed_income - per_capita.non_labour_income - ons.household_interest_income (proxy reference) Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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vahid-ahmadi
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Mar 3, 2026
Previous data showed zero impact because policyengine-uk 2.74.0 still had November 2025 OBR forecasts as defaults. The baseline and reform simulations were producing identical results. Regenerated all population impact data using policyengine-uk@main which now includes the March 2026 OBR Economic and Fiscal Outlook parameters (merged via PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk#1512 and #1514). Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Summary
Variables updated from Table A.1
Variables pending detailed tables
The following retain November 2025 forecast values. The OBR detailed forecast table spreadsheets (with Tables 1.7, 1.12, 1.16, 4.1) have not yet been published — OBR said they'll be available by end of day March 3. A follow-up PR should update:
Test plan
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